Mali Politikaların Sürdürülebilirliğinin Yapısal Kırılmalı Periyodik Birim Kök Testi ile Analizi: Türkiye Örneği = The Analysis of Sustainability of Fiscal Policies by Periodic Unit Root Test with Structural Break: the Case of Turkey

• Main Author: Aycan HEPSAĞ
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dogus University 2011-01-01
• Series: Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi
• Subjects: Yapısal Kırılmalı Periyodik Birim Kök Testi; Periyodik Otoregresif Modeller; Sürdürülebilirlik; Periodic Unit Root Test with Structural Break; Periodic Autoregressive models; Sustainability
• Online Access: http://journal.dogus.edu.tr/index.php/duj/article/view/3

The aim of this study is to investigate the sustainability of fiscal policies that administered in Turkish economy within the framework of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraint approach. Towards to the aim of study, for the sample period that covers 1990:1-2008:4, the periodic unit root test with structural break is applied to the ratio of Total Public Debt Stock to Gross Domestic Product, Debt/GDP variable, which is assumed as the indicator of sustainability. The empirical findings show that the sustainability circumstance of fiscal policies that administered in Turkish economy exhibits periodic behaviors and also show that the administered fiscal policies are “unsustainable” under the structural break and periodic behaviors.