The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets

The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets

This paper investigates the informational value of USDA crop progress and condition information by analyzing reactions of corn and soybean futures markets from 1986 to 2012. Results show significant differences between close-to-open return variabilities on report-release trading days and pre- and po...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Georg V. Lehecka
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Western Agricultural Economics Association 2014-04-01
Series:Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Subjects:
condition
corn
futures markets
market efficiency
market reactions
progress
public information
soybeans
Online Access:https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/168261
Description
Summary:This paper investigates the informational value of USDA crop progress and condition information by analyzing reactions of corn and soybean futures markets from 1986 to 2012. Results show significant differences between close-to-open return variabilities on report-release trading days and pre- and postreport days. Additionally, market prices tend to react rapidly and rationally to new crop-condition information. Strongest reactions are found for July and August, when weather conditions are most critical for the crop, and reactions have increased over time. Overall, these results suggest that reports have substantial informational value.
ISSN:1068-5502
2327-8285

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