Mapping oil and gas development potential in the US Intermountain West and estimating impacts to species.

• Main Authors: Holly E Copeland, Kevin E Doherty, David E Naugle, Amy Pocewicz, Joseph M Kiesecker
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2009-10-01
• Series: PLoS ONE
• Online Access: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2756592?pdf=render
• ISSN: 1932-6203

BACKGROUND:Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7-19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.