Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate...
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doaj-f8b284249ae5499b9076beddce7598de2021-04-02T04:20:26ZengElsevierJournal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity2287-884X2018-12-01114566572Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosumMasoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad0Mostafa Assadi1Laura Parducci2Department of Plant Biology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran; Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 021 44787282 5.Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, IranDepartment of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenIn this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km² (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades. Maxent model predicts A. squarrosum complex populations from southern Iran to be under treat of extinction, especially at lower altitudes regions and this prediction may concern other subalpine species found in the same region. Among the climatic variables investigated, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter were those that mostly affected A. squarrosum complex distribution. Keywords: Acanthophyllum, Biodiversity management, Irano-Turanian region, Species distribution modelinghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2287884X1830044X |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad Mostafa Assadi Laura Parducci |
spellingShingle |
Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad Mostafa Assadi Laura Parducci Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity |
author_facet |
Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad Mostafa Assadi Laura Parducci |
author_sort |
Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad |
title |
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum |
title_short |
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum |
title_full |
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum |
title_fullStr |
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum |
title_sort |
impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the irano-turanian subalpine species complex acanthophyllum squarrosum |
publisher |
Elsevier |
series |
Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity |
issn |
2287-884X |
publishDate |
2018-12-01 |
description |
In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km² (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades. Maxent model predicts A. squarrosum complex populations from southern Iran to be under treat of extinction, especially at lower altitudes regions and this prediction may concern other subalpine species found in the same region. Among the climatic variables investigated, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter were those that mostly affected A. squarrosum complex distribution. Keywords: Acanthophyllum, Biodiversity management, Irano-Turanian region, Species distribution modeling |
url |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2287884X1830044X |
work_keys_str_mv |
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