Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum

In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate...

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Main Authors: Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad, Mostafa Assadi, Laura Parducci
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2018-12-01
Series:Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2287884X1830044X
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spelling doaj-f8b284249ae5499b9076beddce7598de2021-04-02T04:20:26ZengElsevierJournal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity2287-884X2018-12-01114566572Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosumMasoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad0Mostafa Assadi1Laura Parducci2Department of Plant Biology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran; Corresponding author. Tel.: +98 021 44787282 5.Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, IranDepartment of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenIn this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km² (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades. Maxent model predicts A. squarrosum complex populations from southern Iran to be under treat of extinction, especially at lower altitudes regions and this prediction may concern other subalpine species found in the same region. Among the climatic variables investigated, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter were those that mostly affected A. squarrosum complex distribution. Keywords: Acanthophyllum, Biodiversity management, Irano-Turanian region, Species distribution modelinghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2287884X1830044X
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad
Mostafa Assadi
Laura Parducci
spellingShingle Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad
Mostafa Assadi
Laura Parducci
Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity
author_facet Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad
Mostafa Assadi
Laura Parducci
author_sort Masoumeh Mahmoudi Shamsabad
title Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
title_short Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
title_full Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
title_fullStr Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
title_full_unstemmed Impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the Irano-Turanian subalpine species complex Acanthophyllum squarrosum
title_sort impact of climate change implies the northward shift in distribution of the irano-turanian subalpine species complex acanthophyllum squarrosum
publisher Elsevier
series Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity
issn 2287-884X
publishDate 2018-12-01
description In this study, we used maximum entropy modeling to predict the climate change effects on the distribution range of a subalpine steppe flora species complex, Acanthophyllum squarrosum (Caryophyllaceae). We used data from four different models, with two representative concentration pathways of climate scenarios in modern time, 2030, 2070 and 2080. Our results showed that A. squarrosum has a suitable habitat in ca. 1 million km² (33% of our study area) and will likely experience a northward shift, gaining new habitat in Azerbaijan, Armenia and North of Afghanistan in the near decades. Maxent model predicts A. squarrosum complex populations from southern Iran to be under treat of extinction, especially at lower altitudes regions and this prediction may concern other subalpine species found in the same region. Among the climatic variables investigated, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter were those that mostly affected A. squarrosum complex distribution. Keywords: Acanthophyllum, Biodiversity management, Irano-Turanian region, Species distribution modeling
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2287884X1830044X
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