A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study

Abstract Background Although criteria for liver transplantation, such as the Milan criteria and Hangzhou experiences, have become popular, criteria to guide adjuvant therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation are lacking. Methods We collected data from all consecu...

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Main Authors: Dabing Huang, Yinan Shen, Wei Zhang, Chengxiang Guo, Tingbo Liang, Xueli Bai
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2021-03-01
Series:BMC Cancer
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07938-x
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spelling doaj-f80b81a106364aeab26c300b65187e8d2021-03-21T12:50:49ZengBMCBMC Cancer1471-24072021-03-012111810.1186/s12885-021-07938-xA preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective studyDabing Huang0Yinan Shen1Wei Zhang2Chengxiang Guo3Tingbo Liang4Xueli Bai5Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang UniversityAbstract Background Although criteria for liver transplantation, such as the Milan criteria and Hangzhou experiences, have become popular, criteria to guide adjuvant therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation are lacking. Methods We collected data from all consecutive patients from 2012 to 2019 at three liver transplantation centers in China retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to analyze preoperative parameters, such as demographic and clinical data. Using data obtained in our center, calibration curves and the concordance Harrell’s C-indices were used to establish the final model. The validation cohort comprised the patients from the other centers. Results Data from 233 patients were used to construct the nomogram. The validation cohort comprised 36 patients. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were identified as HbeAg positive (P = 0.044), blood-type compatibility unmatched (P = 0.034), liver transplantation criteria (P = 0.003), and high MELD score (P = 0.037). For the validation cohort, to predict OS, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.874. Based on the model, patients could be assigned into low-risk (≥ 50%), intermediate-risk (30–50%), and high-risk (≤ 30%) groups to guide adjuvant therapy after surgery and to facilitate personalized management. Conclusions The OS in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation could be accurately predicted using the developed nomogram.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07938-xHepatocellular carcinomaLiver transplantationRisk factorsNomogram
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Dabing Huang
Yinan Shen
Wei Zhang
Chengxiang Guo
Tingbo Liang
Xueli Bai
spellingShingle Dabing Huang
Yinan Shen
Wei Zhang
Chengxiang Guo
Tingbo Liang
Xueli Bai
A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
BMC Cancer
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Liver transplantation
Risk factors
Nomogram
author_facet Dabing Huang
Yinan Shen
Wei Zhang
Chengxiang Guo
Tingbo Liang
Xueli Bai
author_sort Dabing Huang
title A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
title_short A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
title_full A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
title_fullStr A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
title_full_unstemmed A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
title_sort preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study
publisher BMC
series BMC Cancer
issn 1471-2407
publishDate 2021-03-01
description Abstract Background Although criteria for liver transplantation, such as the Milan criteria and Hangzhou experiences, have become popular, criteria to guide adjuvant therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation are lacking. Methods We collected data from all consecutive patients from 2012 to 2019 at three liver transplantation centers in China retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to analyze preoperative parameters, such as demographic and clinical data. Using data obtained in our center, calibration curves and the concordance Harrell’s C-indices were used to establish the final model. The validation cohort comprised the patients from the other centers. Results Data from 233 patients were used to construct the nomogram. The validation cohort comprised 36 patients. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were identified as HbeAg positive (P = 0.044), blood-type compatibility unmatched (P = 0.034), liver transplantation criteria (P = 0.003), and high MELD score (P = 0.037). For the validation cohort, to predict OS, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.874. Based on the model, patients could be assigned into low-risk (≥ 50%), intermediate-risk (30–50%), and high-risk (≤ 30%) groups to guide adjuvant therapy after surgery and to facilitate personalized management. Conclusions The OS in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation could be accurately predicted using the developed nomogram.
topic Hepatocellular carcinoma
Liver transplantation
Risk factors
Nomogram
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07938-x
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