Un modèle gravitaire géoéconomique des échanges commerciaux entre les pays de l’U.E., les PECO et les PTM

• Main Authors: Didier Josselin, Bernadette Nicot
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: Unité Mixte de Recherche 8504 Géographie-cités 2003-03-01
• Series: Cybergeo
• Subjects: European Union; exploratory data analysis (EDA); gravity model; Central and Oriental Europe; international trade; Mediterranean countries
• Online Access: http://journals.openedition.org/cybergeo/4219

The process of enlargement of the European Union is continuous, involving in 2004 ten Central or Oriental European Countries (PECO), and later some Mediterranean countries (PTM). But the EU still asks important questions: what are the candidate countries which will be included first? What will this process induce on European relationship? How high is the risk that some other countries may be evicted (in terms of trade) due to other countries integration? This paper aims to understand more precisely the global potential trade evolution between actual and future EU included oriental or Mediterranean countries. We try to enhance economical factors and geographical constraints which explain trade levels between (groups of) countries. We first model the trade flows for each aggregate of countries. Then, we simulate and assess the impact of including other (blocs of) countries to the UE model and both EU and PTM aggregates. Our study uses classical gravity modelling (designed by Bergstrand and Festoc) and compute data (obtained from the Chelem database) mainly from 1993 to 1997. We add to the model the foreign investments in each country, the contiguity levels between countries and the distance separating country centres. Our approach includes flow modelling, simulations of integration processes and a comparison of relative economical elasticities between the different models.