Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic

Business and Consumer surveys are designed to signal turning points and provide in advance the informatik about potential changes in the economic cycle. The authors, using advanced methods of time series analysis, especially Granger causality and vector autoregressive models, deal with the question...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Juraj Lojka, Jiří Obst, Jan Zeman
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Czech Statistical Office 2016-12-01
Series:	Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
Subjects:	Business and consumer survey gross value added vector autoregressive model Granger causality economic sentiment indicator stationarity test of variables
Online Access:	https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/32912820/32019716q4019.pdf/ee7b864f-575c-46b5-90f9-452c007919a0?version=1.1

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spelling	doaj-f6ee8e649ca6439cba9ef2c3eb42c6a42020-11-24T23:20:59ZengCzech Statistical OfficeStatistika: Statistics and Economy Journal0322-788X1804-87652016-12-019641936Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech RepublicJuraj Lojka0Jiří Obst1Jan Zeman2Czech Statistical Office, Prague, Czech RepublicCzech Statistical Office, Prague, Czech RepublicUniversity of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic; Czech Statistical Office, Prague, Czech RepublicBusiness and Consumer surveys are designed to signal turning points and provide in advance the informatik about potential changes in the economic cycle. The authors, using advanced methods of time series analysis, especially Granger causality and vector autoregressive models, deal with the question of to what extent the results of the surveys in the form of confidence indicators are able to outpace the development of the Czech economy represented by gross value added. In addition, the authors, experimenting with the structure of surveyed questions and used weights, propose some modifications in the construction of confidence indicators as stipulated by the European Commission with the aim to improve their forecasting abilities.https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/32912820/32019716q4019.pdf/ee7b864f-575c-46b5-90f9-452c007919a0?version=1.1Business and consumer surveygross value addedvector autoregressive modelGranger causalityeconomic sentiment indicatorstationarity test of variables
collection	DOAJ
language	English
format	Article
sources	DOAJ
author	Juraj Lojka Jiří Obst Jan Zeman
spellingShingle	Juraj Lojka Jiří Obst Jan Zeman Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal Business and consumer survey gross value added vector autoregressive model Granger causality economic sentiment indicator stationarity test of variables
author_facet	Juraj Lojka Jiří Obst Jan Zeman
author_sort	Juraj Lojka
title	Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic
title_short	Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic
title_full	Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic
title_fullStr	Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic
title_full_unstemmed	Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic
title_sort	assessment of the ability of the business and consumer surveys to predict the gross value added of the czech republic
publisher	Czech Statistical Office
series	Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal
issn	0322-788X 1804-8765
publishDate	2016-12-01
description	Business and Consumer surveys are designed to signal turning points and provide in advance the informatik about potential changes in the economic cycle. The authors, using advanced methods of time series analysis, especially Granger causality and vector autoregressive models, deal with the question of to what extent the results of the surveys in the form of confidence indicators are able to outpace the development of the Czech economy represented by gross value added. In addition, the authors, experimenting with the structure of surveyed questions and used weights, propose some modifications in the construction of confidence indicators as stipulated by the European Commission with the aim to improve their forecasting abilities.
topic	Business and consumer survey gross value added vector autoregressive model Granger causality economic sentiment indicator stationarity test of variables
url	https://www.czso.cz/documents/10180/32912820/32019716q4019.pdf/ee7b864f-575c-46b5-90f9-452c007919a0?version=1.1
work_keys_str_mv	AT jurajlojka assessmentoftheabilityofthebusinessandconsumersurveystopredictthegrossvalueaddedoftheczechrepublic AT jiriobst assessmentoftheabilityofthebusinessandconsumersurveystopredictthegrossvalueaddedoftheczechrepublic AT janzeman assessmentoftheabilityofthebusinessandconsumersurveystopredictthegrossvalueaddedoftheczechrepublic
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Assessment of the Ability of the Business and Consumer Surveys to Predict the Gross Value Added of the Czech Republic

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