Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area

Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: A. Callado, C. Santos, P. Escribà, D. Santos-Muñoz, J. Simarro, J. A. García-Moya
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2011-01-01
Series:Advances in Geosciences
Online Access:http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/133/2011/adgeo-26-133-2011.pdf
id doaj-f4d87fd61afe425ea89b536f4c6f52a7
record_format Article
spelling doaj-f4d87fd61afe425ea89b536f4c6f52a72020-11-25T01:10:34ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Geosciences1680-73401680-73592011-01-012613313810.5194/adgeo-26-133-2011Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean areaA. Callado0C. Santos1P. Escribà2D. Santos-Muñoz3J. Simarro4J. A. García-Moya5Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Catalonia Delegation, Barcelona, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Madrid, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Catalonia Delegation, Barcelona, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Madrid, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Valencia Delegation, Valencia, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Madrid, SpainSpanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/133/2011/adgeo-26-133-2011.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author A. Callado
C. Santos
P. Escribà
D. Santos-Muñoz
J. Simarro
J. A. García-Moya
spellingShingle A. Callado
C. Santos
P. Escribà
D. Santos-Muñoz
J. Simarro
J. A. García-Moya
Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
Advances in Geosciences
author_facet A. Callado
C. Santos
P. Escribà
D. Santos-Muñoz
J. Simarro
J. A. García-Moya
author_sort A. Callado
title Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
title_short Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
title_full Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
title_fullStr Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
title_full_unstemmed Performance of multi-model AEMET-SREPS precipitation probabilistic forecasts over Mediterranean area
title_sort performance of multi-model aemet-sreps precipitation probabilistic forecasts over mediterranean area
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Advances in Geosciences
issn 1680-7340
1680-7359
publishDate 2011-01-01
description Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) runs a daily experimental multi-model Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System (AEMET-SREPS). The role of the system horizontal resolution (0.25 degrees) on the performance of 24-h precipitation probabilistic forecasts, and its relation with mesoscale events, are assessed comparing the performance over the Mediterranean area and over an European Atlantic area. Gridded high resolution rain observations and standard verification measures have been used at different precipitation thresholds, while studying the dependency on seasons for a one year period (May 2007 to June 2008). As a general result, performance over the Mediterranean area is higher than over the Atlantic one, albeit some relative loss of skill is found in autumn, when mesoscale convective organization is assumed to play a more important role. So it is suggested that AEMET-SREPS system precipitation predictability over the Mediterranean in autumn could be expected to improve if the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in order to take into account the effect of meso-beta scale, especially important for convective organization.
url http://www.adv-geosci.net/26/133/2011/adgeo-26-133-2011.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT acallado performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
AT csantos performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
AT pescriba performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
AT dsantosmunoz performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
AT jsimarro performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
AT jagarciamoya performanceofmultimodelaemetsrepsprecipitationprobabilisticforecastsovermediterraneanarea
_version_ 1725173961834102784