Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting

Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from...

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Main Authors: F. Wetterhall, Y. He, H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2011-02-01
Series:Advances in Geosciences
Online Access:http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/21/2011/adgeo-29-21-2011.pdf
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spelling doaj-f48f3c8a720541c78139802012165ca32020-11-24T21:40:15ZengCopernicus PublicationsAdvances in Geosciences1680-73401680-73592011-02-0129212510.5194/adgeo-29-21-2011Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecastingF. Wetterhall0Y. He1H. Cloke2F. Pappenberger3Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UKDepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, UKDepartment of Geography, King's College London, London, UKEuropean Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UKFlood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/21/2011/adgeo-29-21-2011.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author F. Wetterhall
Y. He
H. Cloke
F. Pappenberger
spellingShingle F. Wetterhall
Y. He
H. Cloke
F. Pappenberger
Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
Advances in Geosciences
author_facet F. Wetterhall
Y. He
H. Cloke
F. Pappenberger
author_sort F. Wetterhall
title Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
title_short Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
title_full Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
title_fullStr Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
title_full_unstemmed Effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
title_sort effects of temporal resolution of input precipitation on the performance of hydrological forecasting
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Advances in Geosciences
issn 1680-7340
1680-7359
publishDate 2011-02-01
description Flood prediction systems rely on good quality precipitation input data and forecasts to drive hydrological models. Most precipitation data comes from daily stations with a good spatial coverage. However, some flood events occur on sub-daily time scales and flood prediction systems could benefit from using models calibrated on the same time scale. This study compares precipitation data aggregated from hourly stations (HP) and data disaggregated from daily stations (DP) with 6-hourly forecasts from ECMWF over the time period 1 October 2006–31 December 2009. The HP and DP data sets were then used to calibrate two hydrological models, LISFLOOD-RR and HBV, and the latter was used in a flood case study. The HP scored better than the DP when evaluated against the forecast for lead times up to 4 days. However, this was not translated in the same way to the hydrological modelling, where the models gave similar scores for simulated runoff with the two datasets. The flood forecasting study showed that both datasets gave similar hit rates whereas the HP data set gave much smaller false alarm rates (FAR). This indicates that using sub-daily precipitation in the calibration and initiation of hydrological models can improve flood forecasting.
url http://www.adv-geosci.net/29/21/2011/adgeo-29-21-2011.pdf
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