FORECASTING OF SHIP’S CONSTRUCTION COST BY USING THE METHOD OF THE FUZZY SETS THEORY

• Main Authors: M. Y. Alekhin, V. V. Raev
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Real Economics Publishing House 2014-10-01
• Series: Strategičeskie Rešeniâ i Risk-Menedžment
• Subjects: fuzzy logic; cost forecasting; construction cost of a ship; shipbuilding
• Online Access: https://www.jsdrm.ru/jour/article/view/110

In order to take a rational decision about construction of a ship it is necessary to have an adequate predictive estimate of a construction cost. Traditional forecasting methods do not provide the required level of reliability of a shipyard’s cost estimates. The method of cost forecasting based on fuzzy logic system is proposed. This method has several advantages, including: use of fuzzy initial information for forecasting; increase of the result’s validity due to the potential of use all relevant information for forecasting. In view of the aforesaid it increases the validity of management decisions and has a positive impact on the overall economic sustainability of an enterprise.