Determination of the Long-term Optimal Pattern for Nomadic Ranchers under Climate Uncertainty: Case Study of Nomads in Fars Province

• Main Author: mehrdad bagheri
• Format: Article
• Language: fas
• Published: Ferdowsi University of Mashhad 2014-06-01
• Series: مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی
• Subjects: Optimal pattern of ranchers, Uncertainty, Stochastic programming model, Nomads, Fars province JEL classification: CO2, C61, D81, D24
• Online Access: http://jead.um.ac.ir/index.php/jead/article/view/18713
• ISSN: 2008-4722; 2423-3951

This study develops a long run optimal pattern for nomadic ranchers of Fars province under climate uncertainty by simulating dynamic process of livestock and forage productivity as well as employing dynamic stochastic programming. Results indicate that the nomadic representatives do not perform, optimally. Despite their attachments to livestock as an asset, and their life dependency on livestock, they intend to maintain their herd under any circumstance and to have large herds during any year. But results of the long run optimal pattern based on the stochastic dynamic programming model indicate that even in a wet year rangeland forage production is not enough for livestock feeding. Accordingly, nomads must adjust their herds and fit numbers of their livestock with the pasture capacity. Therefore, in the long run partial, adjusting strategies on the number of livestock rather than purchasing additional forage is recommended.