Risk factors for human infection with West Nile Virus in Connecticut: a multi-year analysis

• Main Authors: Andreadis Theodore, Diuk-Wasser Maria, Slade Martin D, Galusha Deron, Lee Vivian, Liu Ann, Scotch Matthew, Rabinowitz Peter M
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2009-11-01
• Series: International Journal of Health Geographics
• Online Access: http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/8/1/67

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The optimal method for early prediction of human West Nile virus (WNV) infection risk remains controversial. We analyzed the predictive utility of risk factor data for human WNV over a six-year period in Connecticut.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>Using only environmental variables or animal sentinel data was less predictive than a model that considered all variables. In the final parsimonious model, population density, growing degree-days, temperature, WNV positive mosquitoes, dead birds and WNV positive birds were significant predictors of human infection risk, with an ROC value of 0.75.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A real-time model using climate, land use, and animal surveillance data to predict WNV risk appears feasible. The dynamic patterns of WNV infection suggest a need to periodically refine such prediction systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using multiple logistic regression, the 30-day risk of human WNV infection by town was modeled using environmental variables as well as mosquito and wild bird surveillance.</p>