Near-present and future distribution of <it>Anopheles albimanus</it> in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin modeled with climate and topographic data

• Main Authors: Fuller Douglas O, Ahumada Martha L, Quiñones Martha L, Herrera Sócrates, Beier John C
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: BMC 2012-04-01
• Series: International Journal of Health Geographics
• Online Access: http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/11/1/13

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Anopheles albimanus</it> is among the most important vectors of human malaria in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin (M-C). Here, we use topographic data and 1950–2000 climate (near present), and future climate (2080) layers obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to project the probability of the species’ presence, p(<b><it>s</it></b>), using the species distribution model MaxEnt.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The projected near-present distribution parameterized with 314 presence points related well to the known geographic distribution in the study region. Different model experiments suggest that the range of <it>An. albimanus</it> based on near-present climate surfaces covered at least 1.27 million km² in the M-C, although 2080 range was projected to decrease to 1.19 million km². Modeled p(<b><it>s</it></b>) was generally highest in Mesoamerica where many of the original specimens were collected. MaxEnt projected near-present maximum elevation at 1,937 m whereas 2080 maximum elevation was projected at 2,118 m. 2080 climate scenarios generally showed increased p(<b><it>s</it></b>) in Mesoamerica, although results varied for northern South America and no major range expansion into the mid-latitudes was projected by 2080.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>MaxEnt experiments with near present and future climate data suggest that <it>An</it>. <it>albimanus</it> is likely to invade high-altitude (>2,000 m) areas by 2080 and therefore place many more people at risk of malaria in the M-C region even though latitudinal range expansion may be limited.</p>