Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements

Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements

Abstract Many mortality forecasting approaches extrapolate past trends. Their predictions of the future development can be quite precise as long as turning points and/or age-shifts of mortality decline are not present. To account even for such mortality dynamics, we propose a model that combines rec...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Christina Bohk-Ewald, Roland Rau
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2017-01-01
Series:Genus
Subjects:
Mortality forecasts
Rates of mortality improvement
Prediction intervals
Bayesian inference
Coherent mortality forecasts
Online Access:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41118-016-0017-8

Internet

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s41118-016-0017-8

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