More time, more work: How time limits bias estimates of task scope and project duration

• Main Authors: Indranil Goswami, Oleg Urminsky
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Society for Judgment and Decision Making 2020-11-01
• Series: Judgment and Decision Making
• Subjects: time limits; deadlines; time judgments; estimation bias; over-learned responsesnakeywords
• Online Access: http://journal.sjdm.org/19/190918a/jdm190918a.pdf

We propose that externally induced time limits on a task overly affect predictions of other people’s completion times for that task, due to an over-generalized association between the time available and inferred task scope. We find higher estimates of the time needed to complete a given task by another person when the time limit is longer. While such predictions could be normative when time limits are informative, the effect persists even when the decision-maker knows that the limit is arbitrary and is unknown to the other person, and therefore, cannot affect behavior. Perception of task scope mediates the relationship between time limits and completion time estimates, and weakening the association between time limits and task scope attenuates the effect. The over-learned cognitive bias persists even among experienced decision-makers making estimates in a familiar setting. Our findings have implications for people who make decisions that use judgments of others’ task completion time as an input.