| Summary: | We propose that
externally induced time limits on a task overly affect predictions of other
people’s completion times for that task, due to an over-generalized association
between the time available and inferred task scope. We find higher estimates
of the time needed to complete a given task by another person when the time
limit is longer. While such predictions could be normative when time limits are
informative, the effect persists even when the decision-maker knows that the
limit is arbitrary and is unknown to the other person, and therefore, cannot
affect behavior. Perception of task scope mediates the relationship between
time limits and completion time estimates, and weakening the association
between time limits and task scope attenuates the effect. The over-learned
cognitive bias persists even among experienced decision-makers making estimates
in a familiar setting. Our findings have implications for people who make
decisions that use judgments of others’ task completion time as an input.
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