A Method for Generating Coherent Spatially Explicit Maps of Seasonal Paleoclimates From Site‐Based Reconstructions

• Main Authors: S. F. Cleator, S. P. Harrison, N. K. Nichols, I. C. Prentice, I. Roulstone
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020-01-01
• Series: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• Subjects: paleoclimate; 3‐D variational; correlation; pollen reconstruction; condition number; resolution matrix
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001630

Abstract We describe a method for reconstructing spatially explicit maps of seasonal paleoclimate variables from site‐based reconstructions. Using a 3‐D‐Variational technique, the method finds the best statistically unbiased, and spatially continuous, estimate of the paleoclimate anomalies through combining the site‐based reconstructions and a prior estimate of the paleoclimate state. By assuming a set of correlations in the error of the prior, the resulting climate is smoothed both from month to month and from grid cell to grid cell. The amount of smoothing can be controlled through the choice of two length‐scale values. The method is applied to a set of reconstructions of the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 21,000 years ago) for southern Europe derived from pollen data with a prior derived from results from the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. We demonstrate how to choose suitable values for the smoothing length scales for the data sets used in the reconstruction.