POPULATION DECLINE AND ITS CHALLENGES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

• Main Author: SALA ADRIAN LUCIAN
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Academica Brâncuşi 2017-08-01
• Series: Analele Universităţii Constantin Brâncuşi din Târgu Jiu : Seria Economie
• Subjects: population changes; economic growth
• Online Access: http://www.utgjiu.ro/revista/ec/pdf/2017-04/33_sala.pdf

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of population decline on economic growth in Romania compared with the large economies in the EU, by their implications on the main economic indicators of growth, GDP and GDP/capita. Population around the world, including in Romania, is in decline, which will continue to accelerate in the following decades. Statistics show that, in order to stop the population, decrease, the birth rate should remain above 2.1 children per woman. In developed countries, this rate is already below 2.1 and, in the developing countries, it will drop below this level in the next decades. Based on these facts, this article examines the following hypothesis: the population decline does not imply a decline in GDP or GDP/capita. There is no reason to believe that the GDP of a nation would suffer a decline as a result of its population numbers dwindling since the productive base of a nation will not dissolve. The research applies the statistical and econometrical methods. The data sets are from public official statistics. The expected results are that economic growth will maintain its level or will decrease at a pace slower than that recorded by the population.