The use of historical information for regional frequency analysis of extreme skew surge
The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated with a return period up to 10<sup>3</sup> years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme ev...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2018-03-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/18/949/2018/nhess-18-949-2018.pdf |
| Summary: | The design of effective coastal protections requires an adequate
estimation of the annual occurrence probability of rare events associated
with
a return period up to 10<sup>3</sup> years. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) has
been proven to be an applicable way to estimate extreme events by sorting
regional data
into large and spatially distributed datasets. Nowadays, historical data are
available to provide new insight on past event estimation. The utilisation
of historical information would increase the precision and the reliability of
regional extreme's quantile estimation. However, historical data are from
significant extreme events that are not recorded by tide gauge. They usually
look like isolated data and they are different from continuous data from
systematic measurements of tide gauges. This makes the definition of the
duration of our observations period complicated. However, the duration of the observation
period is crucial for the frequency estimation of extreme
occurrences. For this reason, we introduced here the concept of <q>credible
duration</q>. The proposed RFA method (hereinafter referenced as FAB, from the
name of the authors) allows the use of historical data together with
systematic data, which is a result of the use of the credible duration concept. |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |