ANALYSIS OF RESOURCE AND NON-RESOURCE FACTORS’ INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TOMSK REGION USING COGNITIVE APPROACH

• Main Authors: Belan A. K., Shmat V. V.
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Novosibirsk State University Press 2015-03-01
• Series: Vestnik Novosibirskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriâ: Socialʹno-Èkonomičeskie Nauki
• Subjects: регион; Томская область; экономический рост; ресурсозависимость; нефть и газ; человеческий капитал; неопределенность; когнитивное моделирование; region; Tomsk region; economic growth; resource dependence; oil and gas; human capital; uncertainty; cognitive modeling (simulation)
• Online Access: https://nsu.ru/ef/vestnik_ngu_ef/2015_1_8

This article introduces the key problems of social-economic development of Tomsk region and factors that influence economic growth in highly resource-dependent region. Authors prove the advisability of using cognitive approach for investigation and forecasting of social-economic system development in conditions of uncertainty. Also results of simulation are given medium-term forecast. They are interpreted by means of fuzzy cognitive map. Obtained results, on the one hand, confirm the theoretical considerations about the need of convergence between various factors in the regional development strategy. On the other hand, it’s revealed the need to build a normative model, showing what the regional economy should be. This will allow to conceive more clearly the direction of movement from the modern position to desired one and to determine required contours of the economic policy.