Prediction of formation of abrasion and landslide hazardshores of the volga reservoirs ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ АБРАЗИОННОЙ И ОПОЛЗНЕВОЙ ОПАСНОСТИ ПОБЕРЕЖИЙ ВОЛЖСКИХ ВОДОХРАНИЛИЩ

• Main Authors: Koposov Eugeniy Vasil’evich, Sobol Ilya Stanislavovich, Ezhkov Alexei Nikolaevich
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (MGSU) 2013-06-01
• Series: Vestnik MGSU
• Subjects: Volga reservoirs; banks; landslide movement; fractal analysis; prog- nostic estimations of abrasion; Волжские водохранилища; берега; оползневая активность; фрактальный анализ; прогнозные расчеты абразии
• Online Access: http://vestnikmgsu.ru/files/archive/RUS/issuepage/2013/6/22.pdf

The coastline of reservoirs of Volga Сascade has a total length of more than 11,000 km. According to various estimates about 37—48 % of total length of the banks are the banks, breaking down due to abrasion. The length of coastline of reservoirs of Volga Сascade within the boundaries of settlements is 985 km, including those in the major cities 442 km. The greatest evolutionary destruction banks are exposed to is avalanche- crumbling the shore of abrasion. The most dangerous of unpredictable behavior is land- slide coast. The Gorky reservoir in the forthcoming decade is expected to be subjected to reformation abrasion in his lake part with the average intensity of 0.47—0.10 m/year. For the period of exploitation Cheboksary reservoir from 1981 to 2011 averages of observed speed retreat edge of the abrasion shores amounted to 1.2—0.2 m/year. Large landslides on the Volga River confined to the high slopes of the right bank, folded Upper, Upper Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous deposits, are most common in the Gorky, Cheboksary, Kuibyshev, Saratov, Volgograd reservoir. Development of landslide Sursko-Volga slope in Vasil’sursk is going on from the beginning of observations (1523). In the twentieth century significant increase in landslides observed appeared in 1913—1914, 1946—1948,1979—1981 (1981 is the year when Cheboksary reservoir had been filled to the level of63.0 meters). Research method of fractal analysis of landslide activity on the right bank of the Volga River in connection with the periods of solar activity have shown that the period 2008—2019 should be characterized by a reduced number of developing land- slides, although in 2012 and 2017—2019 were perhaps the years with mean rates. This is confirmed by the data for 2012 for the city of Nizhny Novgorod. Landslides does not reveal the general tendency to decay with time. The problem of protection from destruction sites and sliding abrasion shores existing reservoirs does remain actual. Designed are methods to help forecast its decision in the present conditions, taking into account economic, social and environmental factors.<br>Представлены методы прогноза и некоторые результаты оценки абразионной и оползневой опасности побережий Горьковского и Чебоксарского водохранилищ на р. Волге.