Probabilistic Prediction of the Next Earthquake in The Nafz (North Anatolian Fault Zone), Turkey = Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonunda (Nafz) Gelecek Depremlerin Olasılıksal Tahmini

• Main Authors: H. Eray ÇELİK, Murat ERİŞOĞLU, Veysel YILMAZ
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dogus University 2004-06-01
• Series: Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi
• Subjects: Earthquake prediction; Probability distributions; Kolmogorov-Smirnov test; Deprem tahmini; Olasılık dağılımları; Kolmogorov-Simirnov testi
• Online Access: http://journal.dogus.edu.tr/index.php/duj/article/view/157

Statistical methods are useful for characterizing seismic hazard because earthquakes are, for all practical purposes, random phenomena. They provide additional insights to the seismic hazard or risk problem. Seismic risk and earthquake occurrence probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. In this study Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Exponential and Gamma distributions have been examined for which one has the best fit for the given data. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics was used at the research of the distribution best represents earthquake data. At the end of the test, it has been detected that Weibull distribution is more appropriate than other distributions.