Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective study determined for the first time the role of baseline antral follicle count (AFC) and serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level in the first in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle in predicting cumulative live birth from one stimulation cycle. METHODS: We studied 1,156 wo...

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Main Authors: Hang Wun Raymond Li, Vivian Chi Yan Lee, Estella Yee Lan Lau, William Shu Biu Yeung, Pak Chung Ho, Ernest Hung Yu Ng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2013-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3634063?pdf=render
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spelling doaj-e166dc1153514e708c56fc04bb50a1972020-11-25T01:17:58ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0184e6109510.1371/journal.pone.0061095Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.Hang Wun Raymond LiVivian Chi Yan LeeEstella Yee Lan LauWilliam Shu Biu YeungPak Chung HoErnest Hung Yu NgOBJECTIVE: This retrospective study determined for the first time the role of baseline antral follicle count (AFC) and serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level in the first in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle in predicting cumulative live birth from one stimulation cycle. METHODS: We studied 1,156 women (median age 35 years) undergoing the first IVF cycle. Baseline AFC and AMH level on the day before ovarian stimulation were analysed. The main outcome measure was cumulative live birth in the fresh plus all the frozen embryo transfers after the same stimulation cycle. RESULTS: Serum AMH was significantly correlated with AFC. Both AMH and AFC showed significant correlation with age and ovarian response in the stimulated cycle and total number of transferrable embryos. Baseline AFC and serum AMH were significantly higher in subjects attaining a live birth than those who did not in the fresh stimulated cycle, as well as those attaining cumulative live birth. There was a significant trend of higher cumulative live birth rate in women with higher AMH or AFC. However, logistic regression revealed that both AMH and AFC were not significant predictors of cumulative live birth after adjusting for age and number of embryos available for transfer. Considering only one single predictor, the areas under the ROC curves for AMH (0.646, 95% CI 0.616-0.675) and age (0.648, 95% CI 0.618-0.677) were slightly higher than that for AFC (0.617, 95% CI 0.587-0.647) in predicting cumulative live birth. However, a model combining AMH (with or without AFC) and age of the women only classified an addition of less than 2% of subjects correctly compared to the model with age alone. CONCLUSION: Baseline AFC and serum AMH have only modest predictive performance on the occurrence of cumulative live birth, and may not give additional value on top of the women's age.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3634063?pdf=render
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Hang Wun Raymond Li
Vivian Chi Yan Lee
Estella Yee Lan Lau
William Shu Biu Yeung
Pak Chung Ho
Ernest Hung Yu Ng
spellingShingle Hang Wun Raymond Li
Vivian Chi Yan Lee
Estella Yee Lan Lau
William Shu Biu Yeung
Pak Chung Ho
Ernest Hung Yu Ng
Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Hang Wun Raymond Li
Vivian Chi Yan Lee
Estella Yee Lan Lau
William Shu Biu Yeung
Pak Chung Ho
Ernest Hung Yu Ng
author_sort Hang Wun Raymond Li
title Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
title_short Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
title_full Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
title_fullStr Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
title_full_unstemmed Role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-Mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
title_sort role of baseline antral follicle count and anti-mullerian hormone in prediction of cumulative live birth in the first in vitro fertilisation cycle: a retrospective cohort analysis.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2013-01-01
description OBJECTIVE: This retrospective study determined for the first time the role of baseline antral follicle count (AFC) and serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level in the first in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle in predicting cumulative live birth from one stimulation cycle. METHODS: We studied 1,156 women (median age 35 years) undergoing the first IVF cycle. Baseline AFC and AMH level on the day before ovarian stimulation were analysed. The main outcome measure was cumulative live birth in the fresh plus all the frozen embryo transfers after the same stimulation cycle. RESULTS: Serum AMH was significantly correlated with AFC. Both AMH and AFC showed significant correlation with age and ovarian response in the stimulated cycle and total number of transferrable embryos. Baseline AFC and serum AMH were significantly higher in subjects attaining a live birth than those who did not in the fresh stimulated cycle, as well as those attaining cumulative live birth. There was a significant trend of higher cumulative live birth rate in women with higher AMH or AFC. However, logistic regression revealed that both AMH and AFC were not significant predictors of cumulative live birth after adjusting for age and number of embryos available for transfer. Considering only one single predictor, the areas under the ROC curves for AMH (0.646, 95% CI 0.616-0.675) and age (0.648, 95% CI 0.618-0.677) were slightly higher than that for AFC (0.617, 95% CI 0.587-0.647) in predicting cumulative live birth. However, a model combining AMH (with or without AFC) and age of the women only classified an addition of less than 2% of subjects correctly compared to the model with age alone. CONCLUSION: Baseline AFC and serum AMH have only modest predictive performance on the occurrence of cumulative live birth, and may not give additional value on top of the women's age.
url http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3634063?pdf=render
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