Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica

Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica

Cluster analysis was used to identify common patterns of 15 precipitation points of the region, using their anomaly time series as grouping variables. Five clusters where identified through this process. A Vector Auto Regressive model was fitted tothe data to quantify the ocean-atmosphere interactio...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Eric J. Alfaro, F. Javier Soley
Format: Article
Language:Spanish
Published: Universidad de Costa Rica 2012-04-01
Series:Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones
Online Access:https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/article/view/199
id doaj-da322e383f584c2f8610c29bc615c784
record_format Article
spelling doaj-da322e383f584c2f8610c29bc615c7842020-11-25T00:51:37ZspaUniversidad de Costa RicaRevista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones2215-33732012-04-0181779410.15517/rmta.v8i1.199184Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroaméricaEric J. Alfaro0F. Javier Soley1Universidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, Escuela de Física y Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias del Mar y LimnologíaUniversidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones GeofísicasCluster analysis was used to identify common patterns of 15 precipitation points of the region, using their anomaly time series as grouping variables. Five clusters where identified through this process. A Vector Auto Regressive model was fitted tothe data to quantify the ocean-atmosphere interaction between the oceanic indices of the Tropical North and South Atlantic, the Tropical Eastern Pacific and the first empirical orthogonal functions of the regional rainfall clusters. This model shows that the Tropical North Atlantic has the largest influence over the region when compared with the influence of the other indices, having positive correlation with all the rainfall. The Tropical South Atlantic and the Niño 3 indices, instead, were found to have no correlation with the rainfall of the region when an stationary model is fitted. This work shows that the variability of the Tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly presents stronger associations with the Central America rainfall than the Tropical Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly. The association is mainly related to the degree of development of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/article/view/199
collection DOAJ
language Spanish
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Eric J. Alfaro
F. Javier Soley
spellingShingle Eric J. Alfaro
F. Javier Soley
Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones
author_facet Eric J. Alfaro
F. Javier Soley
author_sort Eric J. Alfaro
title Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
title_short Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
title_full Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
title_fullStr Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
title_full_unstemmed Ajuste de un modelo VAR como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
title_sort ajuste de un modelo var como predictor de los campos de anomalías de precipitación en centroamérica
publisher Universidad de Costa Rica
series Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones
issn 2215-3373
publishDate 2012-04-01
description Cluster analysis was used to identify common patterns of 15 precipitation points of the region, using their anomaly time series as grouping variables. Five clusters where identified through this process. A Vector Auto Regressive model was fitted tothe data to quantify the ocean-atmosphere interaction between the oceanic indices of the Tropical North and South Atlantic, the Tropical Eastern Pacific and the first empirical orthogonal functions of the regional rainfall clusters. This model shows that the Tropical North Atlantic has the largest influence over the region when compared with the influence of the other indices, having positive correlation with all the rainfall. The Tropical South Atlantic and the Niño 3 indices, instead, were found to have no correlation with the rainfall of the region when an stationary model is fitted. This work shows that the variability of the Tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly presents stronger associations with the Central America rainfall than the Tropical Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly. The association is mainly related to the degree of development of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough.
url https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/article/view/199
work_keys_str_mv AT ericjalfaro ajustedeunmodelovarcomopredictordeloscamposdeanomaliasdeprecipitacionencentroamerica
AT fjaviersoley ajustedeunmodelovarcomopredictordeloscamposdeanomaliasdeprecipitacionencentroamerica
_version_ 1725244801956184064

Similar Items