Simulationâ€enhanced approach for ranking major transport projects

• Main Authors: Cheng-Wei Su, Min-Yuan Cheng, Feng-Bor Lin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University 2006-12-01
• Series: Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
• Subjects: analytic hierarchy process; Monte Carlo simulation; project ranking; rail projects
• Online Access: http://localhost/journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JCEM/article/view/8814

Owing to financial constraints, it becomes imperative to rank major transport projects to determine implementation priorities and budget allocations. The central Government in Taiwan is using rankings derived from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and direct subjective rankings to set funding priorities. The current approach does not account for the variations in rankings for setting these priorities. Nor does it adequately consider the compatibility with the proposed projects and the national policies in transport infrastructure development. To address these problems, the Central Government has revised the method for project ranking. The revised method expands the matrix of the attributes and impacts that are to be evaluated. It also uses a Monte Carlo simulation analysis to help in determining the rank orders. A pilot study was conducted to assess the revised method. The study uses 25 major rail projects proposed in 2002 as a test bed. Pagrindinių susisiekimo projektų suskirstymo pagal rangus bÅ«das, remiantis modeliavimu Santrauka DÄ—l finansinių apribojimų pagrindiniai susisiekimo projektai turi bÅ«ti suskirstyti pagal rangus, nustatant įgyvendinimo prioritetus ir biudžeto paskirstymÄ…. Taivanio centrinÄ— vyriausybÄ— rangams nustatyti naudojasi analitiniu hierarchiniu procesu (AHP) ir tiesiogiai suteikia rangus prioritetinei finansavimo eilei. TaÄiau Å¡is metodas nÄ—ra adekvatus siÅ«lomų projektų ir nacionalinÄ—s susisiekimo infrastruktÅ«ros plÄ—tojimo politikos suderinamumui. Å iai problemai sprÄ™sti bÅ«tina peržiÅ«rÄ—ti projektų suskirstymo pagal rangus metodÄ…. Patikslintame metode iÅ¡plÄ—sta atributų matrica. Rangų sekai nustatyti taikomas Monte Karlo modeliavimo metodas. Patikslinto metodo analizei atlikta bandomoji studija. Kaip tyrimo objektai studijoje panaudoti 2002 m. pasiÅ«lyti 25 pagrindiniai geležinkelio projektai. Raktiniai žodžiai: analitinis hierarchinis procesas, Monte Karlo modeliavimas, projektų suskirstymas pagal rangus, geležinkelio projektai. First Published Online: 14 Oct 2010