Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

Given that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabili...

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Main Authors: Samson Tan, Darryl Weinert, Paul Joseph, Khalid Moinuddin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-03-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/6/2590
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spelling doaj-d7052ab80a0343cc8116f3daec7299802021-03-15T00:02:31ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172021-03-01112590259010.3390/app11062590Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk MethodologySamson Tan0Darryl Weinert1Paul Joseph2Khalid Moinuddin3Centre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne 3000, AustraliaCentre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne 3000, AustraliaCentre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne 3000, AustraliaCentre for Environmental Safety and Risk Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne 3000, AustraliaGiven that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for high-rise residential buildings with the following goals: (1) Develop an improved PRA methodology to address concerns that deterministic, fire engineering approaches significantly underestimate safety levels that lead to inaccurate fire safety levels. (2) Enhance existing fire safety verification methods by incorporating probabilistic risk approach and HOEs for (i) a more inclusive view of risk, and (ii) to overcome the deterministic nature of current verification methods. (3) Perform comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to address uncertainties in numerical estimates used in fault tree/event trees, Bayesian network and system dynamics and their propagation in a probabilistic model. (4) Quantification of human and organizational risks for high-rise residential buildings which contributes towards a policy agenda in the direction of a sustainable, risk-based regulatory regime. This research contributes to the development of the next-generation building codes and risk assessment methodologies.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/6/2590human and organizational risksprobabilistic risk assessmenthigh-rise residential buildingsfire riskhuman and organizational errorstime varying reliability
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Samson Tan
Darryl Weinert
Paul Joseph
Khalid Moinuddin
spellingShingle Samson Tan
Darryl Weinert
Paul Joseph
Khalid Moinuddin
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
Applied Sciences
human and organizational risks
probabilistic risk assessment
high-rise residential buildings
fire risk
human and organizational errors
time varying reliability
author_facet Samson Tan
Darryl Weinert
Paul Joseph
Khalid Moinuddin
author_sort Samson Tan
title Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
title_short Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
title_full Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
title_fullStr Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
title_full_unstemmed Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology
title_sort sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of human and organizational risks in fire safety systems for high-rise residential buildings with probabilistic t-h-o-risk methodology
publisher MDPI AG
series Applied Sciences
issn 2076-3417
publishDate 2021-03-01
description Given that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for high-rise residential buildings with the following goals: (1) Develop an improved PRA methodology to address concerns that deterministic, fire engineering approaches significantly underestimate safety levels that lead to inaccurate fire safety levels. (2) Enhance existing fire safety verification methods by incorporating probabilistic risk approach and HOEs for (i) a more inclusive view of risk, and (ii) to overcome the deterministic nature of current verification methods. (3) Perform comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to address uncertainties in numerical estimates used in fault tree/event trees, Bayesian network and system dynamics and their propagation in a probabilistic model. (4) Quantification of human and organizational risks for high-rise residential buildings which contributes towards a policy agenda in the direction of a sustainable, risk-based regulatory regime. This research contributes to the development of the next-generation building codes and risk assessment methodologies.
topic human and organizational risks
probabilistic risk assessment
high-rise residential buildings
fire risk
human and organizational errors
time varying reliability
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/11/6/2590
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