A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

• Main Authors: Pakwan Riyapan, Sherif Eneye Shuaib, Arthit Intarasit
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hindawi Limited 2021-01-01
• Series: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
• Online Access: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6664483

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible S, exposed E, symptomatically infected Is, asymptomatically infected Ia, quarantined Q, recovered R, and death D, respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as Rcvd19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if Rcvd19<1. On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if Rcvd19>1. The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.