Consolidação fiscal nos Estados brasileiros: uma análise de duração

• Main Authors: Bruno de Paula Rocha, Fabiana Rocha
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais 2009-06-01
• Series: Nova Economia
• Subjects: ajuste fiscal, análise de duração.
• Online Access: http://revistas.face.ufmg.br/index.php/novaeconomia/article/view/502

The objective of this paper is to analyze the duration of fiscal consolidation of Brazilian states in the period 1986-2001. For this propose, we applied the duration models methodology. We sought to establish the main characteristics that explain the probability that a state would remain in fiscal balance, once it hasachieved that position. The  on-parametric results suggest that the probability that fiscal consolidation will be maintained falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second year. Parametric analysis shows  that there is a core of relevant variables, such as the Number of Failures, the PersonnelCosts/Net Current Revenue ratio, the dummy variable for the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable for the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the polarization in the preferences of the parties that compose the Legislative Assembly.