A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks envi...

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Main Authors: Rong-Hua Wang, Zhen Jin, Quan-Xing Liu, Johan van de Koppel, David Alonso
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2012-01-01
Series:PLoS ONE
Online Access:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBI
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spelling doaj-d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d92021-03-04T01:03:03ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032012-01-0172e2887310.1371/journal.pone.0028873A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.Rong-Hua WangZhen JinQuan-Xing LiuJohan van de KoppelDavid AlonsoAvian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBI
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Rong-Hua Wang
Zhen Jin
Quan-Xing Liu
Johan van de Koppel
David Alonso
spellingShingle Rong-Hua Wang
Zhen Jin
Quan-Xing Liu
Johan van de Koppel
David Alonso
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
PLoS ONE
author_facet Rong-Hua Wang
Zhen Jin
Quan-Xing Liu
Johan van de Koppel
David Alonso
author_sort Rong-Hua Wang
title A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_short A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_full A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_fullStr A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_full_unstemmed A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
title_sort simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
series PLoS ONE
issn 1932-6203
publishDate 2012-01-01
description Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBI
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