A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.
Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks envi...
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2012-01-01
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doaj-d2f16b8aa2c84852a559994b1fbbc8d92021-03-04T01:03:03ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032012-01-0172e2887310.1371/journal.pone.0028873A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu.Rong-Hua WangZhen JinQuan-Xing LiuJohan van de KoppelDavid AlonsoAvian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBI |
collection |
DOAJ |
language |
English |
format |
Article |
sources |
DOAJ |
author |
Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso |
spellingShingle |
Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. PLoS ONE |
author_facet |
Rong-Hua Wang Zhen Jin Quan-Xing Liu Johan van de Koppel David Alonso |
author_sort |
Rong-Hua Wang |
title |
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
title_short |
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
title_full |
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
title_fullStr |
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
title_sort |
simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
series |
PLoS ONE |
issn |
1932-6203 |
publishDate |
2012-01-01 |
description |
Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission. |
url |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/22363397/pdf/?tool=EBI |
work_keys_str_mv |
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