| Summary: | Abstract Background Neutrophilic inflammation is associated with poorly controlled asthma. Serum levels of sST2, a soluble IL-33 receptor, increase in neutrophilic lung diseases. We hypothesized that high serum sST2 levels in stable asthmatics are a predictor for exacerbation within a short duration. Methods This prospective observational study evaluated the serum sST2 levels of 104 asthmatic patients who were treated by a lung disease specialist with follow-ups for 3 months. Results High serum sST2 levels (> 18 ng/ml) predicted severe asthma exacerbation within 3 months. Serum sST2 levels correlated positively with asthma severity (treatment step), airway H2O2 levels, and serum IL-8 levels. High serum sST2 levels and blood neutrophilia (> 6000 /μl) were independent predictors of exacerbation. We defined a post-hoc exacerbation-risk score combining high serum sST2 level and blood neutrophilia, which stratified patients into four groups. The score predicted exacerbation-risk with an area under curve of 0.91 in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Patients with the highest scores had the most severe phenotype, with 85.7% showing exacerbation, airflow limitation, and corticosteroid-insensitivity. Conclusions High serum sST2 levels predicted exacerbation within the general asthmatic population and, when combined with blood neutrophil levels, provided an exacerbation-risk score that was an accurate predictor of exacerbation occurring within 3 months.
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