Spatial Dynamics of Chikungunya Virus, Venezuela, 2014

• Main Authors: Erley Lizarazo, Maria Vincenti-Gonzalez, Maria E. Grillet, Sarah Bethencourt, Oscar Diaz, Noheliz Ojeda, Haydee Ochoa, Maria Auxiliadora Rangel, Adriana Tami
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2019-04-01
• Series: Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Subjects: Chikungunya; arbovirus; outbreak; spatiotemporal; basic reproductive number; Venezuela
• Online Access: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/4/17-2121_article

Since chikungunya virus emerged in the Caribbean region in late 2013, ≈45 countries have experienced chikungunya outbreaks. We described and quantified the spatial and temporal events after the introduction and propagation of chikungunya into an immunologically naive population from the urban north-central region of Venezuela during 2014. The epidemic curve (n = 810 cases) unraveled within 5 months with a basic reproductive number of 3.7 and a radial spread traveled distance of 9.4 km at a mean velocity of 82.9 m/day. The highest disease diffusion speed occurred during the first 90 days, and space and space–time modeling suggest the epidemic followed a particular geographic pathway with spatiotemporal aggregation. The directionality and heterogeneity of transmission during the first introduction of chikungunya indicated existence of areas of diffusion and elevated risk for disease and highlight the importance of epidemic preparedness. This information will help in managing future threats of new or reemerging arboviruses.