Turning points identification of growth business cycle in the Czech republic – an alternative approach

• Main Author: Jitka Poměnková
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Mendel University Press 2009-01-01
• Series: Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis
• Subjects: business cycle; Gasser-Müller estimate; trough; peak
• Online Access: https://acta.mendelu.cz/57/3/0123/

The purpose of the paper is to identify GDP growth cycle of the Czech Republic by means of turning points identification using alternative statistical method – non-parametric kernel estimate. Special type of estimate, convolution Gasser-Müller one, is used. An advantage of this approach is possibility to estimate derivations of unknown function, which is suitable especially in the case of turning points searching.For identification of growth business cycle type results of nonparametric estimate of regression function is used. Obtained residuals, growth component, are considered as growth cycle type and are ana­lo­gi­cal­ly identified. On the basis of nonparametric estimates of growth component derivations (1st and 2nd) turning points (trough and peak) are identified. At the end, comparison of nonparametric statistical approach with economic turning points identification approach, Canova type, is done.