Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate

• Main Author: Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov
• Format: Article
• Language: Russian
• Published: Economic Research Institute of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2012-09-01
• Series: Prostranstvennaâ Èkonomika
• Subjects: revaluation; devaluation; commodity group; exchange rate; CNY; RUB; USD; commodity structure of trade; export; import; Russia; China
• Online Access: http://spatial-economics.com/eng/images/spatial-econimics/3_2012/SE.2012.3.034-054.Izotov.pdf

The author assesses the impact of the Yuan exchange rate volatility on the indicators of the Russian-Chinese trade (the analysis is made on the ground of the statistical database CEIC). Quantitative estimates of changes in Russian-Chinese merchandise trade by commodity groups (in the HS classification) due to the revaluation of the CNY against the USD were obtained via the regression analysis. In the case of the revaluation of the Yuan to the US dollar the value of Russian exports may increase for such commodity groups as mineral products, chemical industry products, base metals, precious stones and metals, and vehicles. This article shows that the value of Chinese imports will decrease for such merchandise groups as transport vehicles, machinery and equipment, leather industry products, non-precious metals and products from them; in this case, the import of the food industry products, mineral products and optical instruments will decrease insignificantly. The author concludes that the revaluation of the Yuan, contributing to the growth of Russian exports and the reduction in Chinese imports, will not cause a radical change in structure of the Russian-Chinese trade