Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolati...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Zhihua Liu, Pierre Magal, usmane Seydi, Glenn Webb
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: AIMS Press 2020-04-01
Series:Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Subjects:
corona virus
reported and unreported cases
isolation
quarantine
public closings
epidemic mathematical model
Online Access:https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2020172?viewType=HTML
Description
Summary:We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.
ISSN:1551-0018

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