| Summary: | Using the data of manufacturing enterprises from 2003 to 2013 and the data of the state-level economic and technological development zone and high-tech development zone from 2010 to 2012, this paper uses BD-DD dual robust identification strategy to analyse the impact mechanism of the overflow effect of the establishment of state-level development zones by accurately judging the geographical relationship between enterprises and development zones. The results show that the development zone has a significant spillover effect on the surrounding manufacturing enterprises, and the total factor productivity of enterprises within 1000m is about 9% higher than that of enterprises within 1000m from the boundary of the development zone and the existence of Marshall’s adjust theory is tested. Spillover effects have a range of 1000m on innovation, while human capital is only 500m, indicating that knowledge spillover effects established in development zones are the main source of gathering externality. From the different characteristics of manufacturing, high-tech or mature manufacturing enterprises are more affected by spillover effects, possibly because high-tech or mature enterprises and regional enterprises overlap more in factors of production or technology, it is more likely to form Marshall cluster externality.
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