Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry

The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks rel...

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Main Authors: Stanisław Tokarski, Małgorzata Magdziarczyk, Adam Smoliński
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2021-08-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210
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spelling doaj-cc936af9e3d64081b18f650d2acebbc12021-08-26T13:43:50ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732021-08-01145210521010.3390/en14165210Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power IndustryStanisław Tokarski0Małgorzata Magdziarczyk1Adam Smoliński2Central Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, PolandDepartment of Economics, Finance, Regional and International Research, Opole University of Technology, ul. Luboszycka 7, 45-036 Opole, PolandCentral Mining Institute, Plac Gwarków 1, 40-166 Katowice, PolandThe introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031–2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that the missing power would be balanced by retaining the existing, older coal-powered units, whereas the required electricity would be compensated by import. The third scenario involves the production of the missing volume of electricity using coal with CO<sub>2</sub> capture in existing or new coal-powered units.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210energy policyforecastjust transitionrisk analysis
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Stanisław Tokarski
Małgorzata Magdziarczyk
Adam Smoliński
spellingShingle Stanisław Tokarski
Małgorzata Magdziarczyk
Adam Smoliński
Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
Energies
energy policy
forecast
just transition
risk analysis
author_facet Stanisław Tokarski
Małgorzata Magdziarczyk
Adam Smoliński
author_sort Stanisław Tokarski
title Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
title_short Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
title_full Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
title_fullStr Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
title_full_unstemmed Risk Management Scenarios for Investment Program Delays in the Polish Power Industry
title_sort risk management scenarios for investment program delays in the polish power industry
publisher MDPI AG
series Energies
issn 1996-1073
publishDate 2021-08-01
description The introduction of the Green Deal in 2019 by the European Commission poses a significant challenge for EU member states whose power generation is based primarily on fossil fuels. In Poland, nearly 80% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels. This paper presents an analysis of the risks related to the delays in the accomplishment of investment programs in the Polish power industry. Three scenarios were prepared for balancing the deficiency of about 3 GW of power and 20 TWh of electricity in the national power grid in the years 2031–2040, which may emerge as a result of the delayed accomplishment of investment programs, particularly in nuclear energy. The first scenario presents a variant entailing the rapid phasing out of coal and the replacement of the decommissioned power units with new gas-powered units, where the missing power volume would be partially balanced by import, and partially through gas-based production in the new power units. The second scenario assumes that the missing power would be balanced by retaining the existing, older coal-powered units, whereas the required electricity would be compensated by import. The third scenario involves the production of the missing volume of electricity using coal with CO<sub>2</sub> capture in existing or new coal-powered units.
topic energy policy
forecast
just transition
risk analysis
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/16/5210
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AT małgorzatamagdziarczyk riskmanagementscenariosforinvestmentprogramdelaysinthepolishpowerindustry
AT adamsmolinski riskmanagementscenariosforinvestmentprogramdelaysinthepolishpowerindustry
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