Economic Analysis of China's Large-scale Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain

• Main Authors: HUANG Xuanxu, LIAN Jijian, SHEN Wei, MA Chao
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Energy Observer Magazine Co., Ltd. 2020-06-01
• Series: 南方能源建设
• Subjects: hydrogen; supply chain; technical economy; levelized cost of hydrogen(loch)
• Online Access: https://www.energychina.press/en/article/doi/10.16516/j.gedi.issn2095-8676.2020.02.001

[Introduction] The paper aims to calculate the Hydrogen energy economy efficiency. In next decade, Hydrogen will reconstruct the energy structure of China, as a strategic energy. The total cost of Hydrogen gas supplying chain will impact on the society energy cost in future. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the economy of large-scale hydrogen energy supply chain and analyze the supply chain mode of hydrogen energy in the future energy structure to predict the cost of hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transmission, distribution and application in the era of large-scale hydrogen energy, and the trend of future hydrogen energy marketization. Hydrogen has a layered structure in the hydrogen market due to the high storage and transportation cost, versatility and different quality. In this paper, the concept of crude oil equivalent price (POE) will be put forward to analyzes the comparable price of hydrogen energy and normal energy, to find the reasonable range of hydrogen energy price in the future. To solve the supply chain problem is the key issued to obtain low-cost hydrogen energy, the "mainline gate station model" is proposed to distribution of green hydrogen and the long-distance transmission. [Method] Using the Equalization Cost of Hydrogen analysis model (LCOH), the large scale green hydrogen production project including Solar Power Plant, hydrogen generation and pipeline was measured to calculate the hydrogen transmission cost. The economy of hydrogen transmission from large-scale renewable energy was analyzed with the LCOH. Based on different storage and transportation technologies such as gas hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, solid hydrogen, organic hydrogen, pipe hydrogen. The Six-Quadrants Cost Formula was calculated for cost of storage, transportation and unloading of hydrogen supply chain. [Result] The results show that China has a wealth of green hydrogen resources in west forest, with the decline in investment, it is expected that large-scale green hydrogen pipeline transport of the city gate station, the Hydrogen LCOH will be less than 2.0 RMB / Nm³. Due to the low cost, the west green hydrogen will become the main source in the future. At present, hydrogen storage and transportation technologies are including high press gas hydrogen (>20 MPa), liquid hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, organic hydrogen, hydrogen solid hydrogen, pipeline hydrogen. With the increase in scale, the long-distance transportation of hydrogen will be achieved. Under the existed Hydrogen Transportation technologies, the city gate station to the terminal transport, short-distance transmission mode forecast cost will be below 1.2 RMB / Nm³. Assessing the total cost of the hydrogen energy supply chain, the hydrogen energy finally reaches the terminal in the mainline gate station mode is about 3.2 RMB/Nm³. the equivalent price POE is close to the gasoline price. Considering the energy efficiency factor of the fuel cell, hydrogen energy car at 4.0 RMB /Nm³ hydrogen price, has a lower fuel cost than gasoline car. [Conclusion] Therefore, as a strategic energy source, it is feasible to realize the green hydrogen replacement of hydrogen energy in China without subsidies in next decade.