Manisa Pamuk Fiyatlarının Zaman Serisi Analizi Ve Yapay Sinir Ağı Teknikleri İle Tahminlenmesi Ve Tahmin Performanslarının Karşılaştırılması(Estimating Of Manisa Cotton Prices Using Time Series And Artificial Neural Network Techniques And Comparison Of Their Estimating Performance)

• Main Author: Mustafa
• Format: Article
• Language: deu
• Published: Celal Bayar University 2018-12-01
• Series: Yönetim ve Ekonomi
• Subjects: Data Mining; Time Series; ArtificialNeural Network; ComparingForecastPerformance
• Online Access: http://dergipark.gov.tr/yonveek/issue/41680/457761

Cotton used as herba lraw material of textile industry is of strategic importance in our country and also in agriculture, industry and trade in the world. Cotton trade between countries takes place through cotton stock exchanges. The state determines the value of many agricultural products in our country. However, cotton is one of the few products whose prices are determined by the stock exchange. In this study, annual cotton prices were taken from Manisa Agricultural Market. Later, these data was first corrected, and analyzed in the weka program. Time series and artificial neural network techniques were used to estimate the value of pricesfor 2017. Based on the estimated valuesby MAE, MAPE and RMSE, it is decided which technique will yield better prediction performance. The results obtained were also compared with similar studies in the literature. All of these results show that the artificial neural network technique achieved more successful results.