Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive

Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive requires all water bodies within the EU member states to achieve a “good status”. Many economic assessments assume the “good status” is achieved using selected measures and evaluate only associated costs and benefits. In this p...

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Main Authors: Jan Brabec, Jan Macháč, Jiřina Jílková
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2019-08-01
Series:Water
Subjects:
bayesian networks
Water Framework Directive
phosphorus abatement
eutrophication
Czechia
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/9/1791
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spelling doaj-cb6f8438600e4944a0d06ad099648fd22020-11-25T01:48:51ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412019-08-01119179110.3390/w11091791w11091791Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework DirectiveJan Brabec0Jan Macháč1Jiřina Jílková2Faculty of Humanities, Charles University, 158 00 Prague 5, Czech RepublicFaculty of Social and Economic Studies, Jan Evangelista Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem, 400 96 Ústí nad Labem, Czech RepublicFaculty of Social and Economic Studies, Jan Evangelista Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem, 400 96 Ústí nad Labem, Czech RepublicThe EU Water Framework Directive requires all water bodies within the EU member states to achieve a “good status”. Many economic assessments assume the “good status” is achieved using selected measures and evaluate only associated costs and benefits. In this paper, Bayesian networks are used to test this assumption by evaluating whether the “good status” can be achieved with the selected abatement measures. Unlike in deterministic analysis, Bayesian networks allow effectiveness of measures of the same type to vary, which adds credibility to the analysis by increasing its robustness. The approach was tested on Stanovice reservoir in Czechia using a set of 244 previously designed measures. The results show the target will be met with a probability of 72.4% using the most cost-efficient measures. Based on the results, improvements to the measure selection process are suggested.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/9/1791bayesian networksWater Framework Directivephosphorus abatementeutrophicationCzechia
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author Jan Brabec
Jan Macháč
Jiřina Jílková
spellingShingle Jan Brabec
Jan Macháč
Jiřina Jílková
Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
Water
bayesian networks
Water Framework Directive
phosphorus abatement
eutrophication
Czechia
author_facet Jan Brabec
Jan Macháč
Jiřina Jílková
author_sort Jan Brabec
title Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
title_short Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
title_full Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
title_fullStr Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
title_full_unstemmed Using Bayesian Networks to Assess Effectiveness of Phosphorus Abatement Measures under the Water Framework Directive
title_sort using bayesian networks to assess effectiveness of phosphorus abatement measures under the water framework directive
publisher MDPI AG
series Water
issn 2073-4441
publishDate 2019-08-01
description The EU Water Framework Directive requires all water bodies within the EU member states to achieve a “good status”. Many economic assessments assume the “good status” is achieved using selected measures and evaluate only associated costs and benefits. In this paper, Bayesian networks are used to test this assumption by evaluating whether the “good status” can be achieved with the selected abatement measures. Unlike in deterministic analysis, Bayesian networks allow effectiveness of measures of the same type to vary, which adds credibility to the analysis by increasing its robustness. The approach was tested on Stanovice reservoir in Czechia using a set of 244 previously designed measures. The results show the target will be met with a probability of 72.4% using the most cost-efficient measures. Based on the results, improvements to the measure selection process are suggested.
topic bayesian networks
Water Framework Directive
phosphorus abatement
eutrophication
Czechia
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/11/9/1791
work_keys_str_mv AT janbrabec usingbayesiannetworkstoassesseffectivenessofphosphorusabatementmeasuresunderthewaterframeworkdirective
AT janmachac usingbayesiannetworkstoassesseffectivenessofphosphorusabatementmeasuresunderthewaterframeworkdirective
AT jirinajilkova usingbayesiannetworkstoassesseffectivenessofphosphorusabatementmeasuresunderthewaterframeworkdirective
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