Method of Deformation Probability Prediction Considering the Influence of Uncertainty Factors

Method of Deformation Probability Prediction Considering the Influence of Uncertainty Factors

A probabilistic prediction method of deformation is proposed based on the MCMC algorithm and the Bayesian Prediction Theory.This method describes the uncertainty of deformation prediction using probability distributions and implement the recursive process of prediction by probability rules. The sett...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: WEI Guanjun, DANG Yamin, ZHANG Chuanyin, YANG Weifang
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Surveying and Mapping Press 2017-04-01
Series:Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica
Subjects:
prediction uncertainty
measurement error
parameter uncertainty
Gibbs sampling
probability predication
Online Access:http://html.rhhz.net/CHXB/html/2017-4-526.htm
Description
Summary:A probabilistic prediction method of deformation is proposed based on the MCMC algorithm and the Bayesian Prediction Theory.This method describes the uncertainty of deformation prediction using probability distributions and implement the recursive process of prediction by probability rules. The settlement data from the Nanjing-Hangzhou high-speed roadbed is used to quantitatively analyze the forecast values, reliability intervals and so on, and then the results are compared with those obtained by the least squares estimation and the immune algorithm, and it has shown that the proposed method is effective and feasible.
ISSN:1001-1595
1001-1595

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