Forecasting the Key Performance Indicators of the Market for Medical Insurance Services in Ukraine

• Main Author: Lisovska Olha O.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine 2019-05-01
• Series: Bìznes Inform
• Subjects: medical insurance market; voluntary medical insurance; healthcare; net premium; forecasting; mathematical expectation
• Online Access: http://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2019-5_0-pages-117_122.pdf
• ISSN: 2222-4459; 2311-116X

The aim of the article is to provide short-term forecasting of the volume of net premiums using mathematical expectation based on the analysis of the dynamics of the key indicators of voluntary medical insurance in the domestic market for medical insurance services. The time series of observations are the years from 2008 to 2018. The place of the market for medical insurance services in the structure of the insurance market of Ukraine as a whole is specified. For this purpose, the volumes of net premiums for all types of insurance and separately for the components of medical insurance are analyzed, namely: continuous health insurance, medical expense insurance, and health insurance in case of illness. The dynamics of net premiums and payments for components of medical insurance is analyzed and it is proved that voluntary medical insurance tends to increase. The forecast of the volume of net premiums for 2019 is carried out using the mathematical expectation. Taking into account the effect of the inflation component on the nominal indicator, the actual indicator is calculated, forecasting for nominal and actual indicators is performed, the comparison is made, and the hypothesis on the effect of inflation is confirmed. The prospect for further research is to analyze the key indicators of the market for medical insurance services in the process of passing the next stages of the medical reform and summarizing results of the market development.