| Summary: | In recent decades, changes in stand structure in Central European fir-beech forests, such as accumulation of large-diameter firs, fir dieback, and poor regeneration, have been well documented. Besides environmental factors, light harvesting was suggested as one of the main drivers of the negative structural dynamics of these forests in Croatia. This study applied the MOSES 3.0 stand simulator on permanent sample plot data to reconstruct stand development over the past 20 years and simulate long-term projections of selection stand structure and regeneration with respect to theoretical values, using three management regimes differing by the applied harvesting intensity (traditionally applied, theoretical intensity, and no management). Sample plot data from three sets of detailed measurements (1992, 2002, and 2012) were used for validation of the simulator, and eleven 10-year cycles of management were then simulated under the above management scenarios. Results showed a positive influence of harvest intensity on stand regeneration and the achievement of a targeted selection structure in the long term. Two management scenarios predicted a decrease in stand volume (34% and 40%, respectively), an increase in the initial percentage (28%) of beech and maple (58% and 75%, respectively), and the achievement of optimal stand regeneration of 11-13 recruited trees per hectare annually (60% firs). No management scenario could achieve old-growth structure (accumulation of standing stock, large trees, and deadwood). The theoretical intensity scenario was evaluated as the better approach to be applied in this type of forest stands in Croatia.
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