| Summary: | Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and
a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration
of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business
outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic
stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction
depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting
methods, experience, quality of input data, time period
and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic
but they are often of random nature. They are
affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and
many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty,
the forecast error can by reduced. This article
deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating
data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented
of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of
uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value
by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk
analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity
analysis and variables impact analysis.
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