Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia
Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notab...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2015-06-01
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| Series: | Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.proc-iahs.net/369/147/2015/piahs-369-147-2015.pdf |
| Summary: | Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the
impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade,
downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of
General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner.
Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output
and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches.
As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and
temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall
predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and
the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical
Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model
based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of
rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used
in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction
function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum
rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of
observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is
identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub
daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as
the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations
are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the
context of climate change. |
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| ISSN: | 2199-8981 2199-899X |