Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens

• Main Authors: James O. Lloyd-Smith, Sebastian Funk, Angela R. McLean, Steven Riley, James L.N. Wood
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2015-03-01
• Series: Epidemics
• Subjects: Emerging infectious diseases; Zoonosis; Infectious disease dynamics; Host jump; Cross-species spillover transmission
• Online Access: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436514000504
• ISSN: 1755-4365; 1878-0067

Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.