Mangroves facing climate change: landward migration potential in response to projected scenarios of sea level rise
Mangrove forests prominently occupy an intertidal boundary position where the effects of sea level rise will be fast and well visible. This study in East Africa (Gazi Bay, Kenya) addresses the question of whether mangroves can be resilient to a rise in sea level by focusing on their potential to mig...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2014-02-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.biogeosciences.net/11/857/2014/bg-11-857-2014.pdf |
| Summary: | Mangrove forests prominently occupy an intertidal boundary position where
the effects of sea level rise will be fast and well visible. This study in
East Africa (Gazi Bay, Kenya) addresses the question of whether mangroves can
be resilient to a rise in sea level by focusing on their potential to
migrate towards landward areas. The combinatory analysis between remote
sensing, DGPS-based ground truth and digital terrain models (DTM) unveils
how real vegetation assemblages can shift under different projected (minimum
(+9 cm), relative (+20 cm), average (+48 cm) and maximum
(+88 cm))
scenarios of sea level rise (SLR). Under SLR scenarios up to 48 cm by the
year 2100, the landward extension remarkably implies an area increase for
each of the dominant mangrove assemblages except for <i>Avicennia marina</i> and <i>Ceriops tagal</i>, both on the
landward side. On the one hand, the increase in most species in the first
three scenarios, including the socio-economically most important species in this
area, <i>Rhizophora mucronata</i> and <i>C. tagal</i> on the seaward side, strongly depends on the colonisation rate
of these species. On the other hand, a SLR scenario of +88 cm by the year
2100 indicates that the area flooded only by equinoctial tides strongly
decreases due to the topographical settings at the edge of the inhabited
area. Consequently, the landward <i>Avicennia</i>-dominated assemblages will further
decrease as a formation if they fail to adapt to a more frequent inundation.
The topography is site-specific; however non-invadable areas can be typical
for many mangrove settings. |
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| ISSN: | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |