September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach

<p>Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on differ...

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Main Authors: M. Ionita, K. Grosfeld, P. Scholz, R. Treffeisen, G. Lohmann
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2019-03-01
Series:Earth System Dynamics
Online Access:https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/esd-10-189-2019.pdf
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spelling doaj-be28b2be331a4aa9850325b03f3662f02020-11-24T22:28:49ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872019-03-011018920310.5194/esd-10-189-2019 September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approachM. Ionita0M. Ionita1K. Grosfeld2P. Scholz3R. Treffeisen4G. Lohmann5G. Lohmann6Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyMARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, GermanyMARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany<p>Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled climate models with a focus on sea ice formation.</p>https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/esd-10-189-2019.pdf
collection DOAJ
language English
format Article
sources DOAJ
author M. Ionita
M. Ionita
K. Grosfeld
P. Scholz
R. Treffeisen
G. Lohmann
G. Lohmann
spellingShingle M. Ionita
M. Ionita
K. Grosfeld
P. Scholz
R. Treffeisen
G. Lohmann
G. Lohmann
September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
Earth System Dynamics
author_facet M. Ionita
M. Ionita
K. Grosfeld
P. Scholz
R. Treffeisen
G. Lohmann
G. Lohmann
author_sort M. Ionita
title September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
title_short September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
title_full September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
title_fullStr September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
title_full_unstemmed September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
title_sort september arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
publisher Copernicus Publications
series Earth System Dynamics
issn 2190-4979
2190-4987
publishDate 2019-03-01
description <p>Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled climate models with a focus on sea ice formation.</p>
url https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/esd-10-189-2019.pdf
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