September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approach
<p>Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends strongly on differ...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/10/189/2019/esd-10-189-2019.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>Sea ice in both polar regions is an important indicator of the
expression of global climate change and its polar amplification.
Consequently, broad interest exists on sea ice coverage, variability and
long-term change. However, its predictability is complex and it depends
strongly on different atmospheric and oceanic parameters. In order to
provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal
of sea ice evolution, we applied a robust statistical model based on
different oceanic and atmospheric parameters to calculate an estimate of the
September sea ice extent (SSIE) on a monthly timescale. Although previous
statistical attempts of monthly/seasonal SSIE forecasts show a relatively
reduced skill, when the trend is removed, we show here that the September
sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on
previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model
skillfully captures the interannual variability of the SSIE and could
provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and
atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the
Arctic and for detecting sensitive/critical regions in global coupled
climate models with a focus on sea ice formation.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |