Introduction forecast as an important constituent of the world garden building project in M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the NAS of Ukraine. Part 1

• Main Authors: M.I. Shumyk, P.E. Bulakh, N.I. Popil
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: NAS of Ukraine, M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden 2019-12-01
• Series: Інтродукція Рослин
• Subjects: ethnobotany; plant introduction; world gardens; prediction of plant adaptive capacity; forecasting methods; extension of the range of introduced plants
• Online Access: https://plantintroduction.org/index.php/pi/article/view/1525

The role and place of scientific forecasting in plant introduction and landscape construction have been considered in the historical sequence. Developed by our predecessors of the principle of “General prognosis” and its basic provisions, we put in the formation of prognostic apparatus of plant introduction. The forecast is considered as a theoretical basis and a necessary and initial stage of the introduction process. Scientific direction for anticipating the effects of plant relocation has not yet been fully formed, but there is no doubt that the introduction of prognostic technologies in botanical gardens and arboretums to identify the adaptive capacity of foreign plants to decorate the landscapes of new regions for them. The historical aspect considers the importance of predicting the adaptive capacity of plants in the study of the natural and cultural heritage of the peoples. The world history of ethnobotany has been briefly analyzed, which has given impetus to the dissemination of this field of research in the botanical institutions of Ukraine, M.M. Gryshko National Botanical Garden of the NAS of Ukraine has become a leading exposition agency on this principle. Particular attention is paid to the selection of forecasting methods for the creation of ethnobotanical exposures. Since there are dozens of such diverse methods, the principles and system of their classification are outlined. According to the adopted scheme are analyzed: classical methods of plant introduction, which have prognostic value; non-common extrapolation forecasting methods; physiological, biochemical and genetic prerequisites for introduction; features of introductory forecasting for plants of protected soil; interpolation methods; methods of mathematical modeling. The need to create a database of forecasting methods is explained. Their algorithms and basic requirements for the database are presented. The use of the Electronic Expert System of Forecasting Methods gives information about the existing methods of forecasting and helps to choose the optimal introduction of the experiment in the specific conditions. The practical implementation of the aforementioned methods we have tried and their modifications for the creation of World Gardens will be discussed in the second part of the article.