Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated a...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Johan Walden, Edward H. Kaplan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2004-07-01
Series:Emerging Infectious Diseases
Subjects:
Bioterrorism
Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian Forecast
surveillance
anthrax
perspective
Online Access:https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0632_article
Description
Summary:In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.
ISSN:1080-6040
1080-6059

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